As COVID-19 spreads around the globe, fears of a deep global recession are mounting. Some also fear that food supplies may start running short, especially if supply chains are disrupted. Others fear that agricultural production may be disrupted by containment measures that restrict workers from harvesting and handling crops.
The virus that triggered a localized shock in China is now delivering a significant global shock. This study simulates the potential impact of COVID-19 on gross domestic product and trade, using a standard global computable general equilibrium model
Countries have sought to stop the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Here, we analyse the supply-chain effects of a set of idealized lockdown scenarios, using the latest global trade modelling framework.
No one expected May’s container trade numbers to be anything but awful. And, judging from the port TEU tallies posted so far, it looks like no one will be disappointed.
Most everyone has been bracing for April’s numbers to be subpar, if not appallingly dreadful. Even without firm TEU counts from the thirteen ports it monitors, the National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker’s May 7 outlook for the month of April expected a 13.4% year-over-year drop in containerized imports.
